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Position Purpose
Develop and maintain a reliable demand forecast and translate it into a feasible supply plan by integrating statistical analysis, structured cross-functional collaboration, and coordination of inventory transfers between manufacturing plants, distribution centers, countries, and approved supply sources.
This role transforms customer, market, promotional, and inventory information into a consensus demand plan and an actionable supply plan, ensuring product availability, service level performance, and a single source of truth across Demand Planning, Supply Planning, Operations, and Finance, without engaging in direct commercial negotiations with suppliers.
ESSENTIAL DUTIES AND RESPONSIBILITIES
Forecast Generation and Maintenance
- Develop short-, medium-, and long-term forecasts by SKU, customer, channel, product family, or category.
- Analyze historical sales, customer orders, trends, seasonality, promotions, events, and customer purchasing behavior.
- Apply statistical forecasting models and adjust forecasts based on validated commercial insights.
- Manage new product introductions, product substitutions, phase-in/phase-out activities, intermittent demand, and low-volume items.
- Document forecast assumptions, changes, owners, and demand drivers.
- Coordinate regular demand review meetings with Sales, Key Account Managers, Marketing, and Commercial Leadership.
- Gather and validate information related to promotions, new business opportunities, customer additions and discontinuations, pricing changes, product launches, and exceptional orders.
- Challenge forecast increases or reductions that lack supporting data, customer commitment, SKU detail, timing, or defined probability.
- Translate qualitative commercial inputs into measurable forecast adjustments and track agreed-upon action items.
- Develop short-, medium-, and long-term supply plans based on the demand forecast, customer orders, available and in-transit inventory, open purchase orders, lead times, and supply constraints.
- Convert the consensus demand plan into supply requirements by SKU, source, location, quantity, and required delivery date.
- Analyze inventory coverage, safety stock, backorders, critical materials, excess inventory, slow-moving items, and obsolescence risks.
- Validate MRP/DRP recommendations and adjust planning parameters or exceptions when operational conditions require.
- Recommend allocation priorities during supply constraints, considering service level targets, customer criticality, and regional availability.
- Plan and request inventory transfers between manufacturing plants, distribution centers, countries, or approved supply sources.
- Evaluate the most appropriate supply source for each requirement based on inventory availability, production capacity, lead times, transit times, constraints, and business priorities.
- Monitor transfer requests, transfer orders, confirmations, shipments, in-transit inventory, and receipt of materials.
- Coordinate with Logistics and International Trade regarding shipping schedules, documentation, shipment consolidation, and transportation risks.
- Escalate cases requiring supplier intervention, commercial changes, negotiations, or external capacity support to the Procurement team.
- Measure Forecast Accuracy, Forecast Bias, WAPE, MAPE, and Absolute Error across different levels of aggregation.
- Develop baseline, optimistic, and constrained supply-demand scenarios for changes such as supplier delays, capacity reductions, unexpected demand increases, or shifting business priorities.
- Quantify the impact of each scenario on Fill Rate, backorders, inventory coverage, inventory levels, logistics costs, and product availability dates.
- Analyze deviations between forecasts, customer orders, actual sales, and plan execution to identify root causes.
- Segment products and customers using differentiated planning methodologies such as ABC/XYZ analysis.
- Present clear recommendations, planning assumptions, identified risks, and required actions to support business decision-making.
- Deliver a complete, timely, and consensus-based demand and supply plan to all relevant stakeholders.
- Communicate significant changes in demand or supply, potential stockout risks, and inventory reduction opportunities.
- Participate in S&OP, IBP, MRP, executive planning reviews, and budg